December 23, 2009
To Members of the International Community:
At the request of the Government of Seychelles, I would like to inform you of recent
economic developments in Seychelles
Monetary Fund.
the liberalization of the exchange regime, a strong fiscal adjustment, and prudent monetary
policies. Inflation has been near zero since March and the exchange rate has appreciated from
lows early in the year. Official external reserves have recovered from near depleted levels in
mid-2008 to 1.3 months of imports at end-September. Government expenditure has been
tightly controlled and revenue has remained buoyant despite the difficult domestic and
external environment. The primary budget surplus reached 13.4 percent of GDP in the first
nine months of2009, a large adjustment compared to 3.8 percent for the full year in 2008.
GDP will fall by 7l.h percent in real terms in 2009 on the impact of global recession, but the
economy is responding favorably to the reforms. Real economic growth is expected to
recover to 4 percent in 2010, on a rebound in tourism and FDI.
Program implementation has been exemplary and reforms continue to be pursued
with a high degree of ownership and broad public support, and in spite of strong head winds
from the global recession. All end-September 2009 quantitative performance criteria were
met with margins and all structural benchmarks under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA)
were implemented as scheduled. The third program review was completed on December 18,
2009, and a total of SDR 11 million (about US$17.3 million) has been disbursed under the
SBA.
The reform progress in 2009 sets the stage for a coherent medium-term effort to
extend the gains for growth and stability. These objectives form the core of a new three-year
SDR 19.8 million (about US$31.2 million) arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility,
also approved on December 18, 2009, in replacement of the SBA. The focus now shifts to a
second generation of reforms to consolidate macroeconomic stability, remove constraints to
growth, improve the performance of the public sector, and support the public debt
restructuring process aimed at reestablishing debt sustainability. The reforms ahead include
strengthening public financial management, institutionalizing higher governance standards in
the public enterprises, reforming taxation, bolstering the financial system, and improving the
business environment.
Notwithstanding the government's strong fiscal adjustment and reform successes to
date, and the support of the international community in the form of grants and loans,
public external debt remains unsustainable without additional relief
public external debt remains unsustainable without additional relief
to that granted by Paris Club creditors. Seychelles
exchange offer to commercial bond holders is a critical element in achieving public debt sustainability and in supporting economic recovery.
Yours sincerely,
Dominique Strauss-Kahn
Managing Director
International Monetary Fund
Posts
32 comments:
Meaning we still have a long way to go and that all is not as well as we'd liket to believe. As Vox Dei said in a note(something in the line of):
The best thing that could happen to Seychelles was the IMF coming in and leading us to a stable and healthy economy.
I'm glad the IMF has recognized the good that has been done in addition to what has not. Now it remains to be seen what James Michel and the government will do to improve the rest.
In the meantime we remain on life support from the IMF and our creditors. This would have been brilliant opportunity for the opposition to use in their campaign if they could be bothered to do so.
Patrick X
I love this blog and my only wish is that more Seychellois would read and comment.
As for the IMF letter, it is clear that the debts created by Michel and Rene are unsustainable and as Gill rightly said, will haunt our children and grandchildren until they too go to their graves.
Through corruption, Rene, Michel and their sidekicks such as ChangLeng, Mukesh Valabji, Dolor Ernesta, Jacquelin Dugasse, Francis, Glenny and David Savy, Leopold Payet, Sunny Khan and a slew of other corrupt gangsters, have fleeced this country dry and today IMF is here to help us put the house back in order. Good luck Strauss!
Unfortunately, it is the poor Seychellois workers who will bear the brunt of the so-called reforms,while the honest taxpayers will pay more so that SPPF can continue to use the money for handouts to the social misfits who love handouts and also give SPPF their votes. At the same time, Arabs will buy our land, Australians will manage our tax system, and the Irish Potato heads will get rich at the Police Department. Hip hip hooray!
SNP, DP or any other party for that matter have no chance of winning any election against those bloody thieves and murderers. They should refuse to take part in the elections. As for us mere mortals, we should all go down and write "OFF WITH THEIR HEADS" on our ballot papers during the next election. By counting the wasted votes, we will get a true idea of how many people oppose this corrup farcical system. Let James Michel win another election with 100% votes! That would surely take him to his grave with a smile on his plastic surgery face... to be followed shortly by Rene with his huge belly full of stolen Seychellois money. Savys and cronies can follow thereafter.
Ladies and Gentlemen of the Jury, I rest my case!
Hello Anonymous(you didn't leave a signature),
I'm sure many Seychellois share your thoughts which are a meagre consolation, but don't you think that it would be better to think of a more efficient long-term solution?
To start with, it is clear that the accumulated debts will take decades to eliminate and by that time we will have acquired new debts to the friends helping us out today and those not necessarily in forms of USD or EUR.
I really wish that we had a functioning opposition that would actually be a threat to the PL and have a chance to win the coming election. Prior to the last election I was a supporter of Ramkalawan and SNP as they were still promising and gave a slight hope to the Seychellois' future, but alas it all died very soon after they lost the election by a mere 8% of the votes and since then the opposition has just gone downhill. I was perhaps more disappointed by the DP for not even participating, hence giving the SPPF the best acceptance saying 'we're not going to stand in your way'.
You say that you wish more Seychellois would read this thread and comment. Every time a good debate is written on a forum or an actual subject is brought up I wish the very same and nothing pleases me more than to hear the views of my countrymen and women. Alas the commenters are limited to a handful that are still bitter living in the past and simply cannot tolerate others' opinion so they reply with attacks, accusations and abuse.
That I'm afraid is what the opposition in our country consists of, i.e the same type of people that the SPUP/SPPF/PL consists of: Individuals who do not tolerate resistance of any kind let alone difference in opinion.
So despite of our leaders being thieves and thugs that rob their own people, the voters give them their support as they live in hope that some of those stealings will drip down on them. After all, what other option are they left with?
Patrick X
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Hi All,
Nice start to the NY.
PX , again you got some comments and again they sound repetitive. So I will choose to respect and ignore them until you, the all knowing, can come up with a solution or a positive contribution to getting PL out.
Come on Mr Brain, you know you're smart.
Help us people who don't have your capacity.
On another note, I hope we all can one day be free from the idiots of the Revolution who are all going to hell. Even if Sarah Rene will try to dramatise that biography of renen and make her idiot of a president husband appeaer to be the best thing since PX on a blog.
Cheers
B
B
B:
I can't say I take it as a compliment being compared to Rene, but coming from you I will just take is as a joke. I do have a sense of humour, but I can't say many others here do. Anyhow, to over to your question:
To be frank with you, the answer does not lie in my hands, but in the hands of those who despise of the PL and want them out. Based on the results of the last elections, if they still represent the 'split', 8% of the voters need to be convinced that the PL must go. Let's say there are 60.000 voters(I'm estimating this as I really don't know, but since we're a young population it seems about right) so 8% of those means roughly 5000 souls. Now if the opposition could get 46% of the votes by sitting on their backsides how many votes would they be able to get if they ran a proper campaign by for instance going through the electoral list, visiting people in their homes, talking to the men and women in the street and simply listening to the people? Now note that I didn't say 'Ramkalawan', I said opposition meaning all non PL parties. It would also help if they had a meaningful manifest which they stood for, hence giving those people an alternative to the PL.
I think I just gave you a good idea of what needs to be done to get the PL out.
Else please visit my blog at
www.seychellestoday.blogspot.com where I try to bring up actualities that should interest the public. Who knows, I may even post some ideas there if I knew anyone could bothered to read it.
Patrick X
Hi PX,
Finally we are getting somewhere.
Your idea is very logical and something that I too, and I am sure many others, have been thinking about for some time. The equation is simple enough.
Now all we need are the right people to deliver the solution.
Good on you.
B
P.s. See, we can get along under the right circumstances.
You see, every equation has an 'x'. Find 'x',the equation is solved and you have one or several answers all depending on the equation. :-)
Patrick X
quite interesting read. I would love to follow you on twitter. By the way, did you guys hear that some chinese hacker had hacked twitter yesterday again.
Patrick X, no good has been done by the incumbent government, the IMF have laid down the rules to save Seychelles and the Government simply have to follow to get any bail out from the rest of the world, so please stop giving Le Pep the credit. I am all for healthy debate but get your facts right!
Hello Anonymous one,
In his time, France Albert Rene was advised by many to devaluate the SR, but by doing so he'd lose too much money and decided to watch the country's economy go down instead.
Michel on the other hand was sensible enough to do what was right for Seychelles and did so by following the IMF's rules and recommendations. I think that deserves credit as it takes a lot of balls to admit one has failed and actually take action to clean up.
Ramkalawan has failed his party and its voters, but so far I cannot see him adnitting his failure nor doing anything to correct the damage done. He merely sticks around doing nothing.
Now which one do you think deserves more credit?
Patrick X
Good day, sun shines!
There have were times of hardship when I felt unhappy missing knowledge about opportunities of getting high yields on investments. I was a dump and downright pessimistic person.
I have never thought that there weren't any need in big initial investment.
Nowadays, I'm happy and lucky , I started to get real income.
It gets down to choose a proper companion who utilizes your funds in a right way - that is incorporate it in real business, parts and divides the profit with me.
You can ask, if there are such firms? I have to tell the truth, YES, there are. Please get to know about one of them:
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PX, how the hell can you CREDIT Michel for Bankrupting the country? Whatever your personal peeve with Ramkalawan (and I am not a great fan of him either) you cannot in any way compare him to the Le Pep bunch. Christopher Gill is the countries only hope!
Hello again Anonymous,
Saying Chris Gill is the country's only hope is saying the same as many SPUPs said back then, i.e that Rene was the country's only hope. SNPs said the same in the early days of the reintroduction of the multi-party, that Ramkalawan was the only hope.
Putting all eggs in one basket is damn right dangerous as all it takes is a little trip and you have an inedible omelette all over the ground.
Don't get me wrong, I believe Chris Gill is a good guy, but his past's cock-ups and bad strategical decisions will always haunt him. I have no personal problems with Ramkalawan, but I have a huge problem with his attributes as leader, not to mention LOP.
But back to your question as to how I can give credit to Michel for screwing up the economy: I don't give him credit for that part. As a matter of fact I was one of his and Rene's harshest critics prior to the last election. If you think Gill is a harsh critic, you should have read my critisism of the SPPF then, not to mention Rene and Michel.
I do however give him(Michel) credit for taking the IMF's advise(voluntarily or not) seriously and turning the ship on the right course again. The storm is however far from over as we all know.
However much wrong a man has has done, I believe he deserves credit whenever he does something right to correct the wrong or simply does something right. I will give Ramkalawan credit the day he does the same.
Patrick X
Patrick X
You are my hero. Keep it up.
JJ
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